Romania could register, in the medium term, a resident population below the threshold of 19 million and older than at present, the president of the National Institute of Statistics (INS) Tudorel Andrei says in the analysis 'What does the past reveal about the country's economic future?'.

'The evolution of a country's population over a long time horizon follows a relatively uniform trajectory. Moreover, population dynamics, depending to a large extent on two natural phenomena, births and deaths, has a pronounced inertial character. The use of statistical data, collected year after year, both at national and local level, to characterize population evolution, represents an important advantage in anticipating two important characteristics of the population: its number and structure by important age groups (under 14 years, between 15-64 years and over 65 years). Thus, in order to anticipate what will happen in the dynamics and structure of the Romanian population over a medium time horizon, without resorting to sophisticated demographic projection methods, we consider, at least, the following: the annual number of live births, which oscillates around 150,000, and that of deaths around 250,000 people; the average life expectancy, which increased to over 77 years (in 1990 it was 69.6 years); the average age of the mother at first birth increased to over 27.6 years, while at the beginning of the transition it was just over 22 years; in recent years, the resident population has remained above the threshold of 19 million people due to the positive annual flows of international migration', Tudorel Andrei writes in the analysis published in the institution's monthly bulletin.

He mentions that these demographic parameters allow the outline of several characteristics of the Romanian population in a medium time horizon, which could be qualitatively summarized as follows: resident population below the threshold of 19 million and older than at present.

'These demographic developments should not be viewed in positive or negative terms. In the short term, it is impossible to change the demographic characteristics of the population, but we can anticipate developments in the coming period, a situation in which the capacity for anticipation should be strengthened. Or, the picture in which we will find ourselves, from an economic point of view, not many years from now, depends considerably on our capacity to anticipate the effects of current demographic developments on the economy and society in the future', argues Tudorel Andrei.

According to him, demographic processes are not abstract aspects, but they are manifested concretely through the most diverse economic aspects.

'If in the case of demographic decline, at least in the short term, it is difficult to find viable solutions in a democratic society, the inertial nature of population dynamics can offer a great advantage in anticipating the size and structure of public spending in the future, which are generated by the characteristics of demographic developments. The share of social spending in the Gross Domestic Product and its structure in a medium-term horizon depend to a very large extent on the demographic developments we are currently witnessing. The two characteristics of social spending depend on political decisions to correct social inequalities, but also on the transfer of public resources between generations (children, adults and elderly people). Or, in order to anticipate what would need to happen with the volume and structure of social spending, it is appropriate to follow how two demographic indicators have evolved: the demographic aging index and the demographic dependency ratio. They are two indicators that seem abstract, but which are becoming concrete and with a great impact in terms of the distribution of public spending for social services addressed to the three important age groups (children, adults and elderly people)', Tudorel Andrei writes.

According to the president of the INS, in order to naturally maintain the population size at the current level, the short-term fertility rate (the average number of children born to a woman during her fertile life) must be equal to 2.1 children/woman.AGERPRES(RO - writing by: George Banciulea; EN - writing by: Bogdan Gabaroi)