Romania has taken almost no real measures against the crisis generated by rising fuel prices, although it has the highest diesel fuel prices and the second highest gasoline prices in relation to the local purchasing power, according to chairman of the Smart Energy Association (AEI) Dumitru Chisalita.

In an analysis released on Saturday, he says that the only exception remains the compensation by RON 0.20 /litre granted to transporters, given that the diesel fuel prices have increased by RON 1.62 /liter since the beginning of the year.

The AEI chairman adds that, on Friday, a document called 'Proposed measures to mitigate the negative effects of the conflict in the Middle East on the oil market in Romania' appeared in the public space.

'In reality, the general conclusion is simple: this 'Plan' is not, in fact, a plan. It is just a succession of ideas, without working scenarios, without concrete measures, without designated responsibilities, without sources of financing, without impact assessments and without clear implementation mechanisms.'

He adds that the declaration of the crisis situation on the country's market and/or petroleum products can be made only if there are problems with securing the continuity of the quantities needed at the pump. 'Or, that has been refuted by the official statements of late, including those made after the meeting of the Supreme Council for National Defence (CSAT). Then the natural question arises: Should we understand that, however, such problems exist?', the energy specialist asks rhetorically.

He notes that there is, however, a provision in the document that deserves special attention: 'The emergency stockpile in Romania can cover domestic consumption for approximately 45 days, and the stockpiles kept externally, by proxy, for a similar period of time - in total approximately 90 days.'

That is why, says Chisalita it is essential to find out where these 'stockpiles kept externally' are. 'If they are located in Gulf states, then, in the current context, access to them raises serious questions. It is equally important to specify how long it takes for these stockpiles to arrive in Romania from the moment they decide to use them?', says the analyst.

According to the National Institute of Statistics (INS), in 2025, 26% of the diesel fuel imported by Romania came from the Middle East. Thus, given the ongoing blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, that quantity can no longer enter the country. 'Is it not excluded that this very fact is one of the real reasons why they want to declare the situation of oil crisis in Romania?', asks the analyst.

On the same note, the idea of opening the Petrotel Refinery is also part of the lack of fuel quantities, Chisalita also says.

'If we have strategic, commercial reserves and supply routes do not affect Romania, according to the statements, then opening the Petrotel Refinery given the prohibition of processing Russian crude oil (the American sanctions have been lifted but not the European ones) and a 10% deficit in the crude oil worldwide, that is, the effective lack of the crude oil, what would be done? Are they hiding something from us?'.

The analyst goes on to say that one of the measures in the document is the establishment, for a period of one month, of a maximum sale price of RON 8.86 /litre of diesel fuel and RON 8.41 lei/litre of gasoline, a proposal that he considers deeply unrealistic.

In about two weeks' time, according to AEI estimates, diesel fuel prices could reach RON 10 per litre, as diesel fuel and crude oil purchased at much higher prices, as a result of the Gulf War, starts coming into Romania. In other words, traders would be forced to buy high and sell cheaper. No business operator will accept to operate at a loss until bankruptcy, says Chisalita.

Given the circumstances, prices can be capped on paper, but fuels cannot be forced to appear at gas stations.

The consequence is predictable, in the specialist's opinion: from the next day, traders will no longer import diesel to the country, and the shortage will begin, and in about two weeks there will not be enough diesel at the pump. At the same time, in about four weeks, the same situation will occur in the case of gasoline as well. Basically, 'it is just one step away from queues, panic and social revolt.'

' Of course we can talk about capping the trade margin, but that is something other than what is written in the document, and I don't think it produces the expected effect. Why? Because the application of a single national margin will be too small for small petrol stations and too high for large petrol stations. If this measure is applied for more than 6 months (and will apply), all small gas stations will go bankrupt. At the same time, the large gas station chains, which have vertically and horizontally integrated business, will take care to move their profit to other links in the chain and the measure will not lower the price. Auditing the behaviour of traders and publishing the results is the only measure that can correct this behaviour.'

Also, the wording of the document on 'the export of petroleum products (gasoline and diesel) carried out with the agreement of the relevant ministry ' should most likely be interpreted as an intention to limit exports and to establish strict conditions for them. 'However, from a legal point of view, 'export' refers exclusively to deliveries to states outside the European Union. Under these conditions, the measure can be easily circumvented by deliveries to EU member states, followed by redirecting products to non-EU countries,' says the AEI official.

He also says that 'it is vaguely and improperly worded' and the expression 'measures to prevent the sale of petroleum products at a price that exceeds the values of the maximum prices'. Instead of such an unclear wording, the document should - in the analyst's opinion - explicitly provide for control mechanisms, relevant bodies and applicable sanctions. In reality, however, fuels will simply disappear from gas stations.

At the same time, the plan of measures comes with multiple fiscal proposals (excise duty cuts, state aid, etc.), but apparently surprisingly, a few hours after the budget was approved.

'The emergence of these proposals a few days after the budget voted against the fiscal measures to reduce the impact of the increase in fuel prices, shows exclusively the populist character of these proposals, their inapplicability and, in fact, the lack of real intention to diminish the impact of the increase in fuel prices on the population. I think it is a defiance of the intelligence of Romanians, a collective stupidity that someone really thinks about people, but struggles to do things so that it cannot happen.'

Energy Minister Bogdan Ivan has submitted to the coalition leaders a proposal for emergency measures to mitigate the effects of the conflict in the Middle East on the oil market in Romania. The document shows that the government is also considering declaring a crisis situation on the country's market for crude oil and petroleum products, capping sales prices, direct subsidies at the pump, fiscal support for hauliers and agriculture, derogations from the rules on bioethanol and a temporary restart of the Petrotel-Lukoil refinery in Ploiesti. AGERPRES (RO - editing by: Cristian Anghelache; EN - writing by: Corneliu-Aurelian Colceriu)