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Adrian Negrescu(economic consultant): Romania, not in default scenario, politicians should be more reserved in making statements

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The situation on the political scene is influencing more than ever the fears of investors, who are starting to sell Romanian securities and to leave Romania from an investment perspective, maintains the economic consultant, Adrian Negrescu.

'Romania is facing an unprecedented currency crisis. The situation on the political scene is influencing more than ever the fears of investors who are starting to sell Romanian securities, are starting to leave Romania from an investment perspective and, therefore, I think it is absolutely essential, vital, that the Romanian president, the new interim prime minister to go out into the public space and talk about Romania's commitments, to give assurances that our country will not default, as former Prime Minister Ciolacu said, and that we will respect all the commitments undertaken by the Romanian state. We need some messages of stability from the higher levels of the state institutions, because the investors' fears are growing. Consider that one of the candidates is promising in the public arena that he will cut interest rates on all loans to Romanians, an aberration from an economic point of view, which raises questions about his discernment regarding economic issues. Beyond the messages of stability that the prime minister and the interim president must convey, it is necessary that the two candidates for the presidency of Romania, Mr. [George] Simion and Mr. Nicusor [Dan], go out in the public space and talk about investments in Romania, talk about the plans they have from an economic point of view, outline the measures they will take once they reach the most important position in the state,' Adrian Negrescu told AGERPRES on Tuesday.

In his opinion, the phenomenon of capital withdrawal from Romania will worsen if the question marks related to the situation of the economy and public finances are not clarified very soon.

'If we do not clear up these question marks related to the state of the economy and public finances very soon, I am afraid that this phenomenon of capital withdrawal from Romania will become more pronounced, and Romania will lose, from an investment point of view, all the 10-15 years of economic growth that we have had from the perspective of investors' perceptions,' the economic consultant added.

According to him, the National Bank has allocated almost 3 billion EUR to maintain the exchange rate at 4.97 RON/EUR, a measure that is becoming useless given the way investors view Romania.

'In the coming period, the exchange rate is expected to exceed 5 RON for 1 EUR. The National Bank has already allocated almost 3 billion EUR to keep the exchange rate at 4.97 RON/EUR, a measure that was salutary in the short term, but which is becoming useless in terms of how investors view Romania. I am afraid that, if the National Bank continues this policy of supporting the exchange rate, it will only attract speculators to Romania, attract hedge funds and turn this whole exchange rate game into a real financial war from which we will have the most to lose. I am sure that the exchange rate will depreciate in the coming period and this is a healthy thing from the perspective of the way the economy is adjusting, as a result of the administrative dynamics on the political scene,' said Adrian Negrescu.

He emphasized that Romania has a sufficient financial buffer at the Ministry of Finance, which allows the payment of bills for a period of 2-3 months.

'Unfortunately, the former prime minister Ciolacu played a major role in this negative perception, when he repeatedly stated that Romania is at risk of defaulting on its payments. We are not in this scenario. Romania has a sufficient financial buffer at the Ministry of Finance that allows us to pay our bills for a period of 2-3 months. We have a sufficient foreign exchange reserve at the National Bank and we have an agreement with the European Commission, the IMF and the World Bank which allow us to access a line of rapid financing in case we have a financial problem, in such a way that we do not risk defaulting. So, politicians should be more reserved in this period in making absolutely aberrant statements about the economic situation and let the specialists talk, give messages of stability, not to put gas on the fire of investors' fears,' added the economic consultant.

The Bucharest stock exchange reacted negatively to the results of the first round of the presidential elections and to the changes on the political scene, while the interest rates used to calculate the cost of loans increased and the RON/EUR exchange rate on Tuesday exceeded the psychological threshold of 5 RON. AGERPRES (RO - writing by: Nicoleta Banciulea; EN - writing by: Simona Iacob)

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