Romania, Ireland - only European countries expected to record GDP contraction in 2026, according to IMF
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revised downwards its forecast for the Romanian economy this year, projecting a contraction of 0.5%, compared with growth of 0.7% forecast in April and an expansion of 1.4% in October last year, according to the latest ‘World Economic Outlook' (WEO) report published by the international financial institution on Tuesday.
The IMF has also slightly lowered its forecast for Romania's GDP growth in 2027, to 2.2% from the 2.5% projected in the spring.
According to the international financial institution, Romania and Ireland are the only countries in both advanced and emerging Europe expected to record a contraction in gross domestic product this year, of 0.5% and 1% respectively. Overall, Europe is forecast to record economic growth of 1.4% in 2026 and 1.7% in 2027.
The IMF is also more pessimistic about Romania's progress in reducing its current account deficit, which, according to its latest estimates, will narrow to just 7% of GDP this year, compared with the 6.8% of GDP forecast in the spring. The situation is expected to be similar next year, when Romania's current account deficit is projected to narrow to 6.7% of GDP, a more modest improvement than the 6.2% of GDP forecast in April.
The IMF has also significantly revised its forecasts for consumer price inflation in Romania, which is expected to average 8.2% in 2026 and 4.1% in 2027. By comparison, in April the Fund forecast average annual inflation of 7.8% in 2026 and 3.9% in 2027.
As regards Romania's unemployment rate, the IMF expects it to rise to 6.5% in 2026, from 6.1% in 2025, before edging down to 5.9% in 2027. By comparison, in April the Fund had forecast a slight decline in the unemployment rate to 6% in 2026, followed by a further decrease to 5.9% in 2027.
The forecasts were published ahead of the autumn meetings of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank (WB), which are taking place this week in Bangkok, Thailand.
Last week, the World Bank published its own forecasts, according to which the Romanian economy is expected to contract by 0.5% this year due to fiscal consolidation and higher energy costs. A recovery in real incomes and slowing inflation should help growth rebound to around 1.9% in 2027-2028, following the decline in 2026. AGERPRES (RO - writing by: Constantin Balaban; EN - writing by: Adina Panaitescu)
The content of the www.agerpres.ro website has the exclusive purpose of public informing.
All the information published on this website by AGERPRES is protected by relevant legal dispositions.
It is forbidden to copy, reproduce, recompile, decompile, distribute, publish, display, modify, create derived components or products or full services, as well as any exploitation of the site's content.
Details in the section Terms of Use. If you are interested in picking up AGERPRES news items, please contact the Marketing Department – marketing@agerpres.ro.
The use of the Comments section entails your obligation to respect the AGERPRES terms and conditions in regards to the publishing of comments on the www.agerpres.ro.
Other news in category
Japanese traditional art exhibition 'Ningyo: The Art and Beauty of Japanese Dolls' opens at MNAR
The traditional Japanese art exhibition 'Ningyo: The Art and Beauty of Japanese Dolls' will open on Friday at the National Museum of Art of Romania (MNAR). The event is organized by the Embassy of Japan, the Japan Foundation and MNAR. The opening ceremony will take place at 6:00 p.m. in the presence of Japanese Ambassador to Romania Katae Takashi and M
EU wants agriculture firmly embedded in rural and competitiveness policies, Commission official says
The European Commission wants agriculture to be firmly anchored in both rural development and competitiveness policies, Elisabeth Werner, Director-General for Agriculture and Rural Development at the European Commission, said on Thursday at the AGRI4FUTURE National Conference: Romania - Objective 2035, organized in Bucharest by the Romanian Farmers' Club.
CSM sanctions two judges over increased sentencing rationale in Daniel Chitoiu's case
The Supreme Council of Magistrates (CSM) on Thursday sanctioned two judges from the Pitesti Court of Appeal who sentenced former Finance Minister Daniel Chitoiu to four years in prison in a fatal 2019 traffic accident case, finding they unlawfully increased the sentence based on the conduct of the defendant's lawyers. Judges Ioan Fundatureanu and Costin An
Nazare:We've begun discussions for 2027 budget;ministries have until next week to input necessary data
The Ministry of Finance has begun preparations for drafting the 2027 state budget, and ministries have until next Wednesday to enter the data required for estimating revenues and setting budget limits into the new IT platform, Minister of Finance Alexandru Nazare stated on Thursday. 'Today, we have concretely initiated discussions regarding the 2027 budget
Restoration of Sulina's European Commission of the Danube Palace estimated at EUR 12 mln
The restoration of the European Commission of the Danube (ECD) Palace in Sulina, a heritage building owned by the Galati Lower Danube River Administration (AFDJ), is expected to cost around EUR 12 million, with efforts to secure the necessary funding already underway, said AFDJ Director General Angela Stela Ivan. The ECD Palace, an emblematic building located
ADS completes REPowerEU reform under NRRP;32,000 hectares of unproductive land,available for renewable energy investments
The State Domains Agency has completed the REPowerEU reform under the National Recovery and Resilience Plan (NRRP), making over 32,000 hectares of unproductive land available for investments in renewable energy, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (MADR) announced on Thursday. 'The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (MADR), through
Ministry of Culture is monitoring the progress of research on Roman sarcophagus discovered in Constanta
The Ministry of Culture is monitoring the progress of research and conservation efforts regarding a Roman child's sarcophagus, discovered intact in Constanta, to ensure that this exceptional find can be studied and showcased under appropriate conditions. 'A Roman sarcophagus discovered intact in Constanta reveals the story of a child who lived nearly t
Rogobete announces extensive inspections of hospital outpatient clinics, after personally calling to make an appointment
Minister of Health Alexandru Rogobete announced on Thursday that the ministry's control body will launch 'extensive' checks into the specialized outpatient clinics of public hospitals, following his own personal attempt, conducted by phone, to secure an appointment in the neurology department. 'Many patients have reported to me that they spend
Invictus Royal Duathlon to honour Romanian soldiers killed on international missions
The Invictus Royal Duathlon, a sporting and commemorative event dedicated to Veterans of Overseas Operations Day and the memory of Romanian soldiers killed in the line of duty during international missions, will take place on Saturday in Curtea de Arges. Now in its eighth edition, the event is being held ahead of Veterans of Overseas Operations Day (November 1
Oradea Bookfest Book Fair first edition: 30,000 books, events and prominent guests
Oradea is hosting the Bookfest Book Fair for the first time, bringing more than 30,000 books to the city, alongside prominent figures from Romanian literature and culture, international authors, book launches, debates and meetings with readers. For four days, from 5 to 8 November, the Sion Neolog Synagogue becomes a venue for cultural dialogue, giving readers
Romanian Academy to host '80 Years Since the Famine in the Moldavian SSR' session, exhibition
The Romanian Academy will organise a commemorative session and an exhibition next Tuesday to mark 80 years since the famine in the Moldavian SSR (1946-1947). Organised by the National Institute for the Study of Totalitarianism (INST), the two events, entitled '80 Years Since the Famine in the Moldavian SSR (1946-1947). The Memory of a Tragedy' and '
UPDATE/SRI: Bomb threat on aircraft landed on Otopeni Airport; threat not confirmed after specialist inspection
A crisis response unit was set up at Otopeni Airport on Thursday after a bomb threat was reported on an aircraft that had arrived from Milan, but the threat was not confirmed after the pyrotechnist inspection, the Romanian Intelligence Service (SRI) said. 'The control tower of Bucharest's 'Henri Coanda' International Airport was notified by the
'Nadia. Perfection Has a Story' AGERPRES exhibition to open Vaslui Education Excellence Gala on Friday
'Nadia. Perfection Has a Story' AGERPRES exhibition will open in Vaslui on Friday, 6 November, ahead of the Education Excellence Gala, an annual event awarding pupils who have achieved outstanding results in school competitions. The exhibition will be hosted by the Vaslui County Cultural Centre. 'We very much wanted to mark an import
Senate's Abrudean meets US defence official: strategic partnership anchors Romania's security
Senate President Mircea Abrudean met on Thursday at the Senate with US Under Secretary of Defence for Policy Elbridge Colby to discuss Black Sea security and the need for NATO allies to assume an active and sustainable role in their own defence, noting that the Strategic Partnership with the United States remains an anchor of Romania's security and stability.
UMPCD ranks first among Romanian universities in CWTS Leiden Ranking
The University of Medicine and Pharmacy 'Carol Davila' Bucharest (UMPCD) ranks first among Romanian universities in the international CWTS Leiden Ranking 2026, both in the overall ranking and in the Biomedical and Health Sciences field, where it maintains its position as the national leader. According to the UMPCD release, this year's edition of th